okay, just kidding. but i do have a method of play that i will give the gist of. there are certain 'angles' or spot plays to be on the look out for. these are certain types of races or situations that produce a high rate of winners. i'll give you one example of a strong angle.....the horse was the favorite in its last race and lost that race and is the favorite again today. this angle is extremely powerful as the selected horse will win a high percentage of the time ....close to 66 percent of the time a losing favorite will win win next time out if it is the favorite again. if you bet such a horse to place....that means, to finish at least second or better,,,,you will be cashing a ticket 80 percent of the time, although for less than you would make if you bet it to win.
now we get to the basic rules of my method. you read the past performances of the program and find a horse that has a strong winning angle. IF that horse is the favorite or the second choice in the betting pool, you bet that horse to place. IF it is not the favorite or the second choice, then you bet whoever else is the favorite to place. that is it in a nut shell. that is the trick. this method works because it identifies where the smart money is going. simply put, if something looks too good to be true it probably is. if you spot a horse who has a past performance that makes him a solid contender who should be an even money favorite or else very low in odds and yet it is going off at 5-1 on the tote board, it is usually NOT a horse the betting public has 'over looked..' something is up. as anyone who has played the stock market will tell you..if a stock looks cheap, if it looks like a bargain....it usually isn't. the betting market is very efficient over time and rarely are strong contenders 'over looked.' finding 'overlays' at the track is a myth.
that is the basic method but there are certain rules that should be followed. 1) limit races to where there is ONE strong contender. do not bet on any race where you do not find a STRONG ANGLE. 2) do not bet on any race where there is a very strong favorite below 3/5...as this eats up the place pool and why bet 2 dollars to get back 2 dollars and 10 cents? 3) do not bet on races where the odds of the top three horses are so close together that it is not CLEAR who the favorite is. for example...the odds of the top three horses are 2-1, 2-1, 5-2.......pass these races. this usually happens when there is more than one STRONG CONTENDER. 4) no horse that is moving UP in class is ever bet....even if its last races rates as a STRONG ANGLE. just don't do it do not bet on it. this will serve you well in the long run. this rule is inflexible. 5) pass races where too many horses are coming from different tracks and they are showing decent support in the betting odds. there is just too much uncertainty in such races. but i do look at horses that are coming from higher class tracks.
i have about 5 STRONG ANGLES that i look for when using this method but i find the most confident bet i make is when one of my contenders is NOT the favorite or second choice and i bet whoever else is the favorite of the race. quite often these horses win with ease, they romp to victory going away by 3 lengths or more. i am willing to share some of these angle if anyone out there has some input on this method and any ideas to share with me.
here is one more strong indicator, as a gift. the horse has finished second by a length or less. both the second place horse and the winner finished 5 lengths or more ahead of the rest of the horses. a horse that finishes a very close second by such a wide margin on the rest of the field will win its next race about 40 percent of the time!!!! this angle needs you to do a bit of work and look at result charts to find these situations but it is beautiful because this information is hidden on the past performance lines. all they will show is that it finished a tight second and not reveal that it has 6 lengths or more on the rest of the field!!! simply put....a horse that finishes second in this manner might as well have won by 6 lengths. and you get a good price on it because this information is hidden.
you will notice that i do not mention TIME very much in my method. this is because i find that the TYPE of race ends up being more important than how fast the race was. but if there is a horse that has a 2 second or more advantage over the other horses ......best to just pass the race. it will probably go off as a 1-5 or 1-9 favorite anyway.
